The Lakers steal Pau Gasol from the Grizzlies, then the Suns make a controversial move for Shaquille O'Neal and now the Mavericks acquire Jason Kidd. Quite simply, the Western Conference race has become an expensive front office game of "anything you can do, I can do better."
Considering the significant player movement, the big question is: Who will represent the West in the NBA Finals?
As difficult as it is to pick against the consistent and reliable Spurs, I'm shaking things up and putting my money on the Lakers.
Kobe Bryant is still the league's best all-around player and when dominant youngster Andrew Bynum returns from injury, the Lakers will boast the premier three-man frontcourt in the NBA. Bynum will man the middle with Gasol alongside at the power forward, while the versatile Lamar Odom will slide down to his natural small forward position.
After single-handedly carrying his lackluster teammates into the playoffs the past two seasons, Bryant can finally dump some of the scoring load on a legitimate supporting cast. The Lakers have an exceptional bench featuring sharpshooters Sasha Vujacic, Jordan Farmar and Vladimir Radmanovic, all-purpose forwards Luke Walton and Trevor Ariza, and active big men Ronny Turiaf and Chris Mihm.
Phil Jackson is one of the best head coaches of all time and he must be salivating at the idea of a 10th NBA title. Expect him to continue to push all the right buttons; the only thing that will stop the "Zen-Master" from getting back to the Finals is an in-season surgery on Bryant's right pinkie.
If Bryant can hold off the surgery until the offseason, the Lakers have the most depth and the best shot at winning the West. It doesn't hurt to have the league's top closer and clutch performer, either.
But, if Bryant is eventually forced to have the surgery, the wily Spurs will undoubtedly be prepared to capitalize. Bryant won't be his dominant self after six weeks of midseason rehab, in which case San Antonio would become the favorite.
At around this point last season I told a friend of mine that the Spurs had a "zero percent chance" of winning it all. They looked old, slow and were struggling mightily on the offensive side of the ball.
The Spurs seem to be suffering through a similar type of lull this year, but I've learned my lesson. Tony Parker is set to return from a nagging ankle injury in the near future and come playoff time the "Big Three" will be intact for their perennial postseason run. Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili will help Parker carry the offense, while relentless small forward Bruce Bowen and center Fabricio Oberto will allow the Spurs to maintain their distinction as the NBA's finest defensive unit.
No discussion of the Spurs is complete without mention of their phenomenal head coach Gregg Popovich. "Pop" - as his players have dubbed him - is the second best coach in professional sports (I must unfortunately admit that Bill Belichick is No. 1). "Pop" is intimidating, experienced and seemingly always makes the right call after a timeout.
Unfortunately for the other teams who made big moves - the Suns and Mavericks - I don't think their deals will make them the West's ultimate gunslingers.
Unlike most NBA analysts, I don't think general manager Steve Kerr made a mistake by trading for O'Neal. Shaq brings the raw size and commitment to defense that the Suns have been lacking for the past four-to-five seasons.
Despite Shaq's arrival, I don't see much to differentiate the Suns from the Golden State Warriors, who will be a lower-level playoff team in the West. Yes, Amare Stoudemire is far superior to anyone on the Warriors' front line, but an argument can be made that Golden State's three-man backcourt of Baron Davis, Monta Ellis and Stephen Jackson is not only the best in the West, but also No. 1 in the entire NBA.
The point is, the Suns and Warriors are both excellent, up-tempo offensive teams and I don't think Shaq will bring enough defense to change how we define the Suns. As a result, Phoenix is nearly as much of a wild card as Golden State; the balanced Lakers and Spurs are wiser choices to win the West.
As for Dallas, the addition of Kidd will elevate the play of Dirk Nowitzki, Josh Howard and Jason Terry - expect all three to increase their offensive production. However, Kidd is a highly overrated defender at this stage in his long career and the Mavericks sent arguably their best defender - DeSagana Diop - to the Nets in the deal.
Now Dallas is left with "The Big Nothing," Erick Dampier, as its only playable center on the roster.
Above all, the Mavericks have two monumental collapses hanging over their heads: a blown 2-0 lead over the Heat in the 2006 NBA Finals, and last season's astonishingly embarrassing first-round exit at the hands of the No. 8-seeded Warriors.
Avery Johnson hasn't proven he can coach his team through periods of intense turmoil. All things considered, I don't think the Mavericks have enough heart or swagger to get it done.
When it's all said and done, the "Zen-Master" pops "Pop" in a Wild West shootout.
John Frascella's
personal column runs every
Wednesday. He can be reached
at John.Frascella@UConn.edu.
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