In the annual two-horse race that is the American League East, don't expect a surprise finish this year - it's the Yankees over the Red Sox once again.
Sticking with their formula of the past five seasons, the Yankees will mash and bash their way to another division title. Their lineup, laced with All-Stars, is a pitcher's darkest nightmare.
During last year's playoffs, Ernie Harwell, the 88-year old Hall of Fame voice of the Detroit Tigers, said the Yankee lineup was the greatest he'd ever seen - high praise coming from a man with over 60 years of experience in professional baseball.
The Yankees return everyone from that lineup with the exception of the disgruntled Gary Sheffield, who, fittingly enough, is now with the Tigers.
The big names - Johnny Damon, Derek Jeter, Bobby Abreu, Alex Rodriguez and Jason Giambi - are to be feared, but perhaps most intimidating is that Robinson Cano, one of the top three offensive second basemen in the MLB, is expected to bat eighth.
Second-to-last! Cano hit .342 last season and he's an afterthought on this team - talk about incredible depth.
Yes, the Yankees are average in the starting pitching department, but their relentless offensive onslaught will be impossible for the Red Sox to keep stride with over the long 162-game haul.
Chien-Ming Wang is an emerging ace and Mike Mussina and Andy Pettitte are reliable, veteran starters. Carl Pavano is a wildcard at the back end of the rotation. The point is the Yankees have enough pitching to outlast the Red Sox during the regular season.
The Red Sox are also hurting themselves by moving Jonathan Papelbon into the starting rotation. Last year Papelbon exploded onto the scene and became the second-best closer in the league, behind Mariano Rivera. But Papelbon demanded to be moved into the rotation during the offseason and manager Terry Francona succumbed, leaving a huge hole at the back of the bullpen.
Something tells me Red Sox fans are going to be tearing their hair out with the likes of Joel Pineiro and Mike Timlin closing games. Pineiro had an astronomical 6.36 ERA last season and Timlin gets rocked because he throws fastballs right down the middle every pitch.
As for the remaining teams, expect the Blue Jays to finish third. Hurlers Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett are one of the best one-two punches in the league and B.J. Ryan is an All-Star closer. Vernon Wells, Frank Thomas and Troy Glaus will provide the pop in their lineup while Reed Johnson and Alexis Rios will bring some speed.
Their weak middle infield - Royce Clayton and Aaron Hill - and inexperienced setup men will keep them out of competition with the Yankees and Red Sox.
The Orioles will likely finish fourth despite having some formidable players. Corey Patterson and Brian Roberts swipe a ton of bases and Miguel Tejada and Aubrey Huff can be counted on to drive in runs, but the Orioles don't have the raw, top-to-bottom power the elite teams possess.
Baltimore did an excellent job solidifying their bullpen, bringing in phenomenal submariner Chad Bradford and lefty Jamie Walker in middle relief and hard-throwing Danys Baez to set-up closer Chris Ray. Yet while their bullpen is strong, with the exception of rising star Erik Bedard, their starting pitching is certainly sub-par.
Bringing up the rear, as usual, will be the lowly Tampa Bay Devil Rays. However, despite being perennial bottom-feeders, they could be fun to watch this season. They have spectacular young talent in Delmon Young and B.J. Upton, unfortunately both are raw and unpolished. Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli are fast, exciting and refreshing in the outfield, but aren't enough to carry the Rays to the next level. Scott Kazmir will once again be one of the top left-handed starters in the league, but his Devil Rays will return as one of the worst American League teams.
John Frascella's MLB column appears every Wednesday. He can be reached at john.frascella@uconn.edu
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