Election 2009: few surprises, unique state issues important

While Tuesday's elections were generally limited to local races, there were a few races around the country that received a good deal of attention. This week's edition of State of Play will take a look at the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, and the special election for the Congressional seat in New York's 23rd district - and what the outcomes may or may not mean for 2010 and beyond.

Virginia gubernatorial race

Not much here in the way of surprises. Republican candidate Robert McDonnell took double-digit advantages in the polls over Democrat Creigh Deeds into Election Day, and ended up winning handily with nearly 59 percent of the vote. Campaigning on promises to create jobs, revive the economy and improve transportation infrastructure within the state, McDonnell avoided divisive social issues and took advantage of Deeds' weak name recognition in the Democratic stronghold of northern Virginia.

Lesson Learned: This was a state election that hinged on state issues. While many pointed to this as a one-year report card on President Barack Obama's standing in Virginia, Deeds explicitly rejected the label of Obama Democrat throughout the campaign and promised a more fiscally moderate administration upon election. Instead, Deeds' failure to appeal to northern Virginia voters and McDonnell's fiscally conservative, socially moderate platform were the factors that decided this race.

New Jersey gubernatorial race

This race was much closer than the race in Virginia. In recent weeks, most polls gave Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine a slight advantage over his Republican opponent, former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie. But the relative unpopularity of both candidates and the presence of independent candidate Chris Daggett gave this race a twist - although Daggett had no chance to win the race, many thought he could steal enough votes from either Corzine or Christie to swing the election. This race was too close to call until nearly midnight on Tuesday. In the end, though, Christie won a close race with 49 percent of the vote. Corzine went down with 44.5 percent, while the independent Daggett ultimately gained 5.7 percent.

Lesson Learned: More so than Virginia, this race represented more of a national referendum - namely, a referendum on the state of the economy. The White House poured resources in this race, hoping to keep a Democrat in the governorship of this deep-blue state. President Obama appeared several times with Corzine at fundraisers and rallies, hoping to boost the status of the incumbent among New Jersey voters. In the end, though, Christie succeeded in making this race a referendum on Jon Corzine and his role in New Jersey's dire fiscal situation.

New York's 23rd Congressional District

In recent weeks, the race to fill this vacant seat in rural upstate New York became a rallying point for the conservative movement as Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, Rick Santorum and other high-profile conservative figures threw their support behind accountant Doug Hoffman, running on the Conservative Party line. The Republican candidate, Dede Scozzafava, was assailed by conservatives nationwide for her support of gay rights, abortion rights and the economic stimulus package. As money and volunteers poured into the district, Hoffman overtook Scozzafava in the polls. Late last week, Scozzafava dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democratic candidate, Bill Owens. Owens won the race with 49 percent of the vote, becoming the first Democrat to represent this part of New York since the Civil War. Hoffman received 45 percent, and Scozzafava still received 5.6 percent of the vote.

Lesson Learned: For better or for worse, the schism in the Republican Party between moderates and the party's far-right wing had an impact in this race and will almost certainly have an impact on the 2010 midterm elections. It is clear that conservative Republicans will not hesitate to take down one of their own if they are deemed to be not sufficiently conservative on these wedge social issues - namely, abortion, gay rights and gun control - as well as on fiscal matters. However, Hoffman's defeat in this race could spell disaster for the GOP in 2010 if this continues to be the game-plan: refusal to embrace moderate Republican candidates will almost certainly result in huge losses outside of the Deep South and lower Midwest. The Beck-Palin-Tea Party wing of the Republican Party, represented by Hoffman's candidacy, did not appeal to moderate Republicans in New York and will not appeal to moderates and independent voters nationwide next year. This is a lesson that the GOP must take to heart if they hold out hope for any sort of success in 2010.