David Yalof gives insight on the upcoming election.

Editorial boards visit campus to meet Hogan; political science professors discuss election

By: Christopher Duray

Posted: 9/10/08

President Hogan invited a group of journalists from all over the area to visit UConn Tuesday. Editorial members of publications such as The New York Times, Hartford Courant, The Chronicle and The Associated Press were treated with a tour of the facilities, lunch and a speech on the presidential race.

Hogan said he arranged the day because in his role as president, he often has to contact members of the press and update them about UConn, and that it would be easier - and more interesting for all parties - to arrange one large day to meet with all of them. He also knew that most of the reporters that write about the university had never actually seen the campus and wanted to give them the opportunity to do so.

There was some concern that inclement weather would hamper the tour, but the guests took the tour from the comfort of a bus.

During lunch, the reporters were given speeches on the current presidential race by Kenneth Dautrich and David Yalof, UConn associate professors of Public Policy and Political Science respectively.

Dautrich started by discussing recent changes in polling information following the national conventions, explaining that popularity for each candidate shot up following their respective conventions, and though John McCain currently holds a lead, it would likely even out in a few weeks.

"Don't put a lot of faith into the polls you see right now," Dautrich said.

He also pointed out that the art of polling is an inspecific one, particularly when pollsters are limited in their financial resources. He also pointed out that pollsters are not able to poll people who exclusively or primarily use cell phones instead of land lines, for legal and ethical reasons,

Dautrich went on to examine the congressional race, noting that Republicans were at a large risk for losing seats, particularly in the House of Representatives, where he said that Connecticut Rep. Christopher Shays was one of the most vulnerable republican incumbents. Dautrich theorized that Democrats would wind up with anywhere between 55 to 59 senate seats after November, and about 245 House seats.

Yalof spoke about the future of the election, though he declined to hypothesize on any outcome in the general election, saying that the election had already taken so many left turns it was hard to make a solid prediction. Instead, he spoke on likely Supreme Court justice picks from both candidates.

Yalof made his predictions based on the policies, temperament and history of the candidates, but said that diving justice picks from either candidate was difficult, as neither would speak definitively on the topic, particularly the Democrats.

"This seems to be a strategic decision dating back to Mondale, who would talk about the Supreme Court a lot and lost," he said. "Of course someone should tell the Democrats there were lots of other reasons why Mondale lost."

For Obama, Yalof favored Latino, female justice candidates such as Sonia Sotomayor or Kim Wardlaw to improve diversity. Yalof also thought Merrick Gorland for the job, and suggested that if Obama wanted a risk, he would nominate Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick.

For McCain, Yalof thought Mike Mcdonell, Janice Brown or J. Michael Litty would be likely picks. He also suggested the relatively young former solicitor Gen. Paul Clement.

Following the lunch, the reporters and professors entered a spirited question and answer session, discussing issues such as the Bradley effect -which is when some people will claim to support a minority candidate and secretly vote against him or her. Another issue discussed was whether or not the vice presidential race will be a large issue. Dautrich didn't think it would be an issue, unless donations for Obama increase as a result of dislike for Sarah Palin.